Daily LME nickel prices trended downwards through September. A strengthening in the US dollar put negative pressure on commodity values. The upcoming Chinese holidays, in early October, are limiting purchasing activity in China. LME trading volumes remain low. Many traders continue to anticipate further reductions in nickel prices. We predict a modest rebound in LME values, however, when the Chinese market reopens. Nevertheless, no significance price increases are expected before the end of 2023, due to weak demand from the global stainless steel industry. New restrictions on mining licences in Indonesia, combined with the impending closure of Glencore’s New Caledonia mine, may limit the supply surplus in 2024 and provide structural support for nickel prices in the medium term.
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