Multiple scenarios-based on a hybrid economy–environment–ecology model for land-use structural and spatial optimization under uncertainty: a case study in Wuhan, China

摘要

Abstract The comprehensive optimization analysis of the quantitative structure and spatial allocation of land use is the key research direction of current and future land use planning. There are a lot of uncertain factors in the land use system. However, few studies couple the uncertain factors in the land use system with the spatial layout model. Based on this, the uncertain mathematical model and the spatial allocation model (GeoSOS-FLUS) are coupled to simulate the land use optimal allocation in Wuhan in 2030. The quantitative structure and spatial allocation optimization model of land use under three scenarios of economic development priority, ecological protection priority and low carbon emission priority were predicted. The coupling model solves the quantitative problem of land system uncertainty and applies it to spatial layout. The results show that the coupling model can help decision-makers to make future land use planning from the perspective of economy, ecology and low carbon emissions, and realize the sustainable development of future land use patterns.