The LME and SHFE arb played a vital role in allowing import TCs to take another step lower through July. Market participants in and outside of China noted that import TCs were at their lowest at arb’s most open position, but few deals were concluded. Traders outside of China delimited a range of $50-80 /t for import TC terms, with the confirmed trades being completed toward the higher portion of that range. Through the reconciliation of collected data over the last month, we assess import TCs in July averaged $70 /t. Chinese mine supply remains under pressure to produce despite the preference for feed being increasingly swayed toward imports. However, Smelter maintenances have helped to alleviate lower availability. Meanwhile, domestic TCs prevailed at RMB900-1,100 /t in most provinces. For July, we assess that average domestic low-silver lead TCs were RMB1,000 /t, up by RMB50 /t from our June 2022 average assessment.
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