External validation and comparison of CHA2DS2–VASc-RAF and CHA2DS2–VASc-LAF scores for predicting left atrial thrombus and spontaneous echo contrast in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation

摘要

Abstract Purpose CHA2DS2–VASc–RAF (R is renal dysfunction, and AF is atrial fibrillation type) and CHA2DS2–VASc–LAF (L is left atrial diameter, and AF is atrial fibrillation type) scores have been developed to estimate the risk of left atrial thrombus (LAT) and spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). However, few external validations have been conducted to assess their accuracy. Thus, this study aimed to validate and compare the two modified scores for predicting LAT/SEC in patients with NVAF.Methods This study included 399 patients with NVAF who underwent transesophageal echocardiography. Risk factors related to LAT/SEC were identified through logistic regression analysis, and predictive value and diagnostic efficiency were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results Approximately 9.8 (39/399) of the patients with NVAF had LAT/SEC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that history of stroke/transient ischemic attack, congestive heart failure, non-paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, lack of anticoagulation therapy, enlarged left?atrial?diameter, enlarged left ventricular end diastolic diameter, decreased left ventricular ejection fraction, decreased left atrial appendage emptying velocity, and decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate were independent risk factors for LAT/SEC. The CHA2DS2–VASc–LAF (area under the ROC curve AUC?=?0.839) and CHA2DS2–VASc–RAF (AUC?=?0.829) scores showed larger predictive values than the CHA2DS2–VASc (AUC?=?0.737) and CHADS2 (AUC?=?0.736) scores. The AUC of the CHA2DS2–VASc–RAF score was similar to that of the CHA2DS2–VASc–LAF score (Z?=?0.432; P?=?0.666).Conclusion This study validated that the CHA2DS2–VASc–RAF and CHA2DS2–VASc–LAF scores are useful prognostic scoring systems for predicting LAT/SEC in patients with NVAF.