Evaluation of Section Speed Enforcement System Using Empirical Bayes Approach and Turning Point Analysis

摘要

Speeding is a major risk factor for traffic-related injuries. As a countermeasure against speeding, automated speed enforcement systems (ASES) have been deployed in many countries. However, drivers' awareness of enforcement locations allows themselves to adjust vehicle speeds in the vicinity of the enforcement locations. This enforcement avoidance behavior leads to a criticism of the effectiveness of ASES, in which the system promotes abrupt changes in vehicle speed near enforcement locations, increasing crash risk as a side effect. To address this issue, the section speed enforcement system (SSES), which enforces overspeeding vehicles by their average travel speed over a section, has been devised. In this study, we evaluate traffic speed and safety data that were collected from sections with SSES on Korean expressways. The speed analysis showed that the vehicles reduced their speeds inside the enforcement section, and this reduction in speed variations across vehicles was also noticeable, signifying that the risk of traffic crash should be lower. In view of this, we have performed before and after comparative analysis using the empirical Bayes method with the comparison group. The outcomes estimate 43 reduction in crash occurrence after installation of SSES. Furthermore, turning point analysis confirmed that the reduction in crash occurrence ensued immediately after installation of SSES.