Joint operation rules considering the uncertainty of energy available for multiple cascaded hydropower system

摘要

Multi-reservoiroperation rules have been widely used in practice operation. Theoperation rules are often derived from historical or simulated run-offinformationthrough implicit stochastic optimization or parameterization-simulation-optimization.The output decisions of operation rules are usually obtained without consideringinflow forecasting or using perfect runoff forecast information, which is hardly implementedin practical applications. This paper proposes robust joint operation rulesfor multiple cascaded reservoirs considering the uncertainty of energy available. Therule parameters are optimized using multi-stepgenetic algorithm for minimum-powermaximization. A case study for a three-cascaded-reservoirssystem shows that, comparedwith deterministic joint operation rules, the accuracy of energy available estimationof joint operation rules is increased by 2.3, considering inflow uncertainty.The simulated minimum-powerdecision of joint operation rules considering the uncertaintyof energy available is 40.4 higher than that of determinate joint operationrules. Results indicate that there is a possibility of obtaining greater and more effectivepower decisions through the joint operation rules considering the uncertainty ofavailable energy.