Recalling last month’s Report, we are expecting welded shipments to improve over the course of 2022 as domestic hot-rolled band prices decline. So how is that going to look throughout the year? Several factors will determine how this plays out. First, steel prices. In the chart below, we’ve taken historical and forecast HRB prices (from our Forecasting Summit, and consistent with what others are predicting), added in conversion costs including scrap, and then plotted those against ERW Alloy Casing prices. Right at the beginning of 2021, welded producers, on average, went into the market in 1Q22.
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