Freight rates look to have peaked and costs are expected to fall 10 in the fourth quarter and by around 40 in the first three months of next year as bottlenecks and port congestion ease, increasing ship availability. IHS Markit is forecasting a correction in the Baltic Exchange Cape Index Average of five time-charter routes to $33,000/d on average during the final quarter of 2021 from $36,354/d currently. In the first quarter of next year, rates will fall further to below $20,000. The Cape market is primarily driven by iron ore from China and with Beijing signalling a desire to curb steel output in second half of the year in order to keep output flat year on year, Cape demand and subsequently freight rates will fall.
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