Abstract Although outbreaks of rare species are unusual, several insect species have become emerging pests probably due to the ongoing environmental changes. Barbitistes vicetinus was first described in 1993 as an endemic bush‐cricket of north‐east Italy and was considered rare until 2008, when it became an established pest, causing severe damages to forests and crops. The possible role of temperature in changing its life cycle has still to be fully understood. Here, we explored the effect of summer temperature on egg diapause and the effect of winter temperature on egg survival. Field observations showed that the proportion of embryos that can complete development at the end of summer ranged from zero to nearly 90 depending on summer temperatures. A substantial shift in the rate of development from 20 to nearly 80 occurred in a thermal range of about 1 °C. On the contrary, overwinter egg survival was high and constant (90) across a wide range of winter temperatures that go well beyond both the cold and warm thermal limits of the current species range. Overall, the results suggest a potential key role of summer temperature warming on the outbreak propensity of this species that is able to switch from a multiyear to an annual life cycle with just a 1–2 °C warming.
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