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Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks

机译:Estimation of Disease Transmission in Multimodal Transportation Networks

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摘要

Mathematical models are important methods in estimating epidemiological patterns of diseases and predicting the consequences of the spread of diseases. Investigation of risk factors of transportation modes and control of transportation exposures will help prevent disease transmission in the transportation system and protect people's health. In this paper, a multimodal traffic distribution model is established to estimate the spreading of virus. The analysis is based on the empirical evidence learned from the real transportation network which connects Wuhan with other cities. We consider five mainstream travel modes, namely, auto mode, high-speed railway mode, common railway mode, coach mode, and flight mode. Logit model of economics is used to predict the distribution of trips and the corresponding diseases. The effectiveness of the model is verified with big data of the distribution of COVID-19 virus. We also conduct model-based tests to analyze the role of lockdown on different travel modes. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is implemented, the results of which assist in policy-making for containing infection transmission through traffic.

著录项

  • 来源
    《Journal of advanced transportation》 |2020年第6期|8898923.1-8898923.16|共16页
  • 作者

    Zheng Yu;

  • 作者单位

    Tongji Univ, Sch Econ & Management, Shanghai 200092, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 英语
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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