Growing cumulative activity of major tropical cyclones: Detection, attribution, and projections

摘要

The proportion of major tropical cyclones (TCs) to the total number of storms (category 1-5) exhibits a statistically significant multidecadal upward trend, which is attributed to a global sea surface warming. These findings facilitate the data-driven approach to stochastic modeling of the underlying utmost complex process. The derived and optimized models enable straightforward projections of the variability in the proportion of major TCs per different scenarios of changes in the global radiative balance. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.