Given current natural gas prices - which appear to include about a $2/mmbtu uncertainty premium, the Freeport LNG incident, and the issues surrounding the EU attempting to wean itself off of Russian gas, an analysis was in order. To support the discussion, please note the chart above. In the chart, demand has been smoothed by additing a trend line and it has been growing slowly over this period. Supply, which is production + imports – exports, has remained relatively flat. The price, which shifted upwards in 4Q2020 is represented by a red dotted line.
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