Parameterized Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Model for Catastrophe Risk Assessment in China

摘要

Inland flooding and mudslides from tropical cyclone (TC) rainstorms are among the most destructive natural hazards in China, resulting in considerable direct economic losses and large numbers of fatalities. In this paper, a TC precipitation model (TCPM) is improved by incorporating the effects of complex terrain through a set of new parameters (e.g., slope, roughness, and attenuation distance) for a more accurate assessment of TC rainfall hazards in China. Moreover, by introducing parameterized spiral rainbands, the model could more accurately capture the intensity of extreme precipitation. The model comprehensively considers dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation factors and is adept at capturing the climate characteristics of TC precipitation and the probability distribution of extreme TC precipitation in China. The model is verified by providing two comparisons. One is analysis including detailed results of three typical TC cases, and the other uses empirical cumulative distribution functions for extreme observations and simulations of historical landfalling TCs in China during the period 1960-2018. The comparisons reveal that the TCPM shows impressive performance for strong TCs with heavy precipitation within 200-300 km of the TC center. Moreover, both the modeled extreme hourly and total TC precipitation probability distributions are consistent with the observations. However, the model needs to be further improved for TCs with dispersive or long-distance precipitation. Significance StatementIn this paper, an optimized and physics-based model for the simulation of tropical cyclone precipitation is described and used to estimate the risk of TC rainfall hazards in China. The work is innovative in that it considers the effect of complex terrain from three perspectives, including slope, roughness, and attenuation distance. The simulations demonstrated that the model is adept at capturing the main climate characteristics of TC precipitation and the probability distribution of extreme TC precipitation in China, which is simple to run several hundred thousand times, with bright application prospects in catastrophe risk assessment.