Probability analysis of rainfall for crop planning in low hill region of Himachal Pradesh

摘要

Indian agriculture is heavily dependent on different weather parameters and their variability affects the agricultural production to a large extent. Rainfall is one of the most important climatic parameter in crop planning. In this paper, an attempt has been made to analyzethe rainfall data of three rain gauze stations from period of (1991-2016), 26 year data of Bhoranj and Nadaun and 19 years data of Tauni devi in Hamirpur district of Himachal Pradesh revealed that mean rainfall of Tauni Devi and Bhoranj received a total of 1333.9 mm and 1010.6 mm whereas Nadaun received lowest rainfall 750.5mm, respectively. The data of different blocks of Hamirpur shows that during SW monsoon (June-September), 696.0-1283.2 mm, 525.5-1437.0 mm and 411.0-1305.3 mmrainfall is received in Bhoranj, Nadaun and Tauni Devi blocks, respectively. The rainy days varied between 28-64, 17-54 and 26-65 days in Bhoranj, Nadaun and Tauni Devi blocks, respectively. Hamirpur has fairly dependable commencement of kharif croppingseason around week 24. The probability of getting wet week ,wet week followed by a wet week and wet week followed by a dry week increased with the advancement of the season up to standard Met. week 34. Thereafter, there was gradual decline of these probabilities up to standard Met. week 39. The situation is therefore amenable to dry seeding in the soil of the region during a week 22-25.