Abstract Aims Unravelling the most prevalent causal direction between diversity and function in naturally recovered plant assemblages can greatly improve our understanding of the functional significance of diversity and its applications under the ongoing environmental changes. In this study, we apply a structural equation model framework to unravel the most plausible causal direction in the diversity–productivity relationship in subseral Mediterranean shrub‐dominated communities. Methods Total shrub cover (as a proxy of productivity when controlled by the time since land use cessation or the last wildfire), the number of species, and the number of functional types based on the dominant life forms (phanerophytes vs. chamaephytes), and the dominant foliar syndromes (deciduous vs. evergreen, needled vs. broad‐leaved), were sampled in 195 circular plots distributed along an elevation gradient ranging from 400 to 1400 m a.s.l. in the Central Iberian Peninsula. We first explored the distribution of functional types along the elevation gradient using a non‐metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS). Secondly, a structural equation model (SEM) framework using mixed‐effects models was defined to unveil the prevalent causal direction between diversity (species and functional types) and productivity at the landscape scale. Results Model selection using the Fisher's C information criterion supported a causal direction from total shrub cover to diversity in this landscape. Interestingly, the best supported model also supported a positive relationship between species richness and the number of functional types, which in turn is driven by the total shrub cover along the elevation gradient. Conclusions Our results suggest that more species might not necessarily boost productivity. On the contrary, ongoing warming temperatures and aridity, which are characteristic of low elevations compared to highlands, might significantly reduce the number of species (victim rather than rescuer) through deleterious effects on productivity.
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