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首页> 外文期刊>Theoretical and Applied Climatology >Dynamic spatiotemporal variation and its causes of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, China
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Dynamic spatiotemporal variation and its causes of extreme precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin, China

机译:淮河流域极端降水的动态时空变化及其成因

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Abstract With the intensification of global warming, extreme precipitation events occur frequently all over the world. Extreme precipitation has brought huge challenges to the development of human society and economy, and it is urgent to strengthen the analysis of the causes of extreme precipitation. In?this study, we first extracted precipitation events from the precipitation time series from 1960 to 2018 in the Huaihe River Basin (HRB) and then extracted extreme precipitation events based on precipitation amount and precipitation intensity. The results show that extreme precipitation in the HRB has an increasing trend after 2000, although the increasing trend is not obvious, and the uncertainty of the occurrence of extreme precipitation events had increased. Extreme precipitation mainly had a strong correlation with the surface air temperature in the North Pacific, Indian Ocean, and Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. The El Ni?o year and the year of abnormal circulation contribute to the production of extreme precipitation in the HRB. In the years when extremely heavy precipitation occurred in the HRB, the subtropical high was northerly. Although most of the water vapor is brought from the Pacific by the East Asian monsoon, the water vapor that causes extreme precipitation in the HRB mainly comes from the Indian Ocean. Through multivariate wavelet coherence (MWC) analysis, annual precipitation is greatly affected by multiple climate variables, while extreme precipitation is greatly affected by a single climate variable. This study provides an important reference for the analysis and prediction of extreme precipitation.
机译:摘要 随着全球变暖的加剧,极端降水事件在世界范围内频发。极端降水给人类社会和经济的发展带来了巨大挑战,亟需加强对极端降水成因的分析。本研究首先从淮河流域1960—2018年的降水时间序列中提取降水事件,然后根据降水量和降水强度提取极端降水事件。结果表明:2000年后HRB极端降水量呈增加趋势,但增加趋势不明显,极端降水事件发生的不确定性增加;极端降水主要与北太平洋、印度洋和青藏高原的地表气温有较强的相关性。厄尔尼奥年和异常环流年导致HRB产生极端降水。在HRB出现特大降水的年份,副热带高压为偏北。虽然大部分水汽是由东亚季风从太平洋带来的,但造成HRB极端降水的水汽主要来自印度洋。通过多元小波相干性(MWC)分析,年降水量受多个气候变量影响较大,而极端降水受单个气候变量影响较大。本研究为极端降水的分析与预测提供了重要参考。

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