Assessing the Impact of Continuous Vaccination and Voluntary Isolation on the Dynamics of COVID-19: A Mathematical Optimal Control of SEIR Epidemic Model

摘要

In order to study the impact of continuous vaccination and voluntary isolation for the COVID-19, a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-quarantine-vaccines (SEIR-QV) model is proposed. A basic regeneration number R_0 is denned to determine the extinction or persistence of the disease. We numerically analyze the impact of key parameters based on actual parameters of COVID-19, such as the vaccination rate, population importation rate, and natural (or causal) mortality transmission rate on the dynamics of disease transmission. Then we obtain sensitivity indices of some parameters on R_0 by sensitivity analysis. Finally, the stability of the system and the effectiveness of the optimal control strategy are verified by numerical simulation.