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Effectiveness of isolation measures with app support to contain COVID-19 epidemics: a parametric approach

机译:支持应用程序的隔离措施对遏制 COVID-19 流行病的有效性:参数化方法

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摘要

In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of measures aimed at finding and isolating infected individuals to contain epidemics like COVID-19, as the suppression induced over the effective reproduction number. We develop a mathematical model to compute the relative suppression of the effective reproduction number of an epidemic that such measures produce. This outcome is expressed as a function of a small set of parameters that describe the main features of the epidemic and summarize the effectiveness of the isolation measures. In particular, we focus on the impact when a fraction of the population uses a mobile application for epidemic control. Finally, we apply the model to COVID-19, providing several computations as examples, and a link to a public repository to run custom calculations. These computations display in a quantitative manner the importance of recognizing infected individuals from symptoms and contact-tracing information, and isolating them as early as possible. The computations also assess the impact of each variable on the mitigation of the epidemic.
机译:在这项研究中,我们分析了旨在发现和隔离感染者以遏制 COVID-19 等流行病的措施的有效性,因为抑制诱导了有效繁殖数。我们开发了一个数学模型来计算这些措施产生的流行病有效繁殖数的相对抑制。这一结果表示为描述流行病主要特征和总结隔离措施有效性的一小部分参数的函数。特别是,我们关注一小部分人口使用移动应用程序进行流行病控制的影响。最后,我们将该模型应用于 COVID-19,提供了几个计算作为示例,以及一个指向公共存储库的链接以运行自定义计算。这些计算以定量方式显示了从症状和接触者追踪信息中识别感染者并尽早隔离他们的重要性。计算还评估了每个变量对缓解流行病的影响。

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