Market Outlook of Coconut Oil in 2020

摘要

Global coconut production is estimated to decline in the CY 2020 as the harvest in the Philippines, Indonesia, and India is estimated to fall short of the year before. Philippines Statistics Authority reported that the production of coconut in the first half of 2020 went down by 3.4 percent as opposed to the same period of the previous year. During January-June 2020, coconut production in the Philippines was 6,405,709.79 tons coconuts (with husk) with Davao Region as the top producer in the country.Likewise, the Ministry of Agriculture of Indonesia estimated that Indonesia is expected to experience a shortfall in coconut production in CY 2020. The production is projected to lower by 1 from 2,828,167 tons in 2019 to 2,798,980 tons copra equivalentin 2020. Apart from the adverse effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, the decrease of coconut production is also attributed to dryness in the first half of 2020. Moreover, La Nina is also predicted to be a 70 chance to occur in the Pacific in 2020. It generally causes the trade winds to intensify, causing warm water to tightly confine around the maritime continent. This concentrates the moisture and fuels the formation of rain clouds that brings more rain to the Philippines and Indonesia. With high rainfall, coconut harvesting is affected, and farmers may also focus on other crops. In addition, transportation can be delayed due to poor local infrastructure. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare of India reported coconut production in India eased by 0.3 from April 2019 to March 2020. Meanwhile, Coconut Research Institute (CRI) Sri Lanka forecasted coconut production in 2020 will level up to 392.7 million nuts. The production is 5.9 higher compared to the production in the previous year.