Digital project twin for quantitative cost, risk and schedule assessment of capital projects

摘要

Digital twin - a representation of an object or process from the real into the digital world. Key aspects are the transfer of data and the ability to run simulations so as to predict possible future outcomes [1]. This term is also used to describe digital models of large infrastructure projects as in recent years there have been significant technological advances in the areas of modelling and simulation. The same applies to the great progress that has been made in the integrated modelling of project cost, schedule and the risks associated with these projects. This paper discusses the project risk twin process, which considers the correct application of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis with additional advanced features such as risk correlations, dependencies and linkage, event tree analysis, Poisson distributions for multiple risk occurrences, calculation of potential future delay cost (i.e., liquidated damages and penalty cost), and escalation. The project risk twin process accompanies the project throughout the planning, construction and operation phase. Key benefits of the project risk twin process are an improved ability to understand, analyse and proactively mitigating risks, enhanced foresight to avoid potential construction delays and insights that lead to seizing opportunities. This is achieved through the application of advanced modelling techniques and simulation to predict future outcomes. Demonstration of an application of the project risk twin process and the above-mentioned features are presented in the case study. The model and visualisations have been created using a risk administration and analysis tool named RIAAT.