Investigating the potential of low-carbon pathways for hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states: Sociotechnical transition in Qatar

摘要

Climate change and low-carbon ambitions globally are exerting pressure on countries of all typologies to move away from fossil fuel (hydrocarbon) use. This study sought to explore how hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states (HDRSs) can undertake a low-carbon transition, while ensuring the continued delivery of goods and services to citizens. The study used the Delphi method to explore how hydrocarbon-dependent rentier states could transition to low-carbon economies, focusing on the state of Qatar. Results were considered using the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework to understand the characteristics of the required socio-technical transitions. Landscape factors which are influencing decarbonization pathway options for HDRSs include global climate change, peer pressure from international organizations, changing consumer preferences, and technological de-velopments. Key attributes of a successful transition appear to be the presence of a strong political will, sustained financial support, long-term strategic policies, and a robust institutional framework with effective governance, monitoring, and evaluation to provide incentives and constraints that can shape the desired socio-technical transition pathway. Through implementing forward-looking policies, HDRSs can avoid future economic costs and distributive impacts resulting from climate policies internationally. These findings have immediate impli-cations for policymakers, bureaucrats, and politicians in HDRSs by providing an evidence base for low-carbon transition leadership.