A review of scenario analysis methods in planning and operation of modern power systems: Methodologies, applications, and challenges

摘要

Addressing the rapidly growing penetration of renewable energy sources and the increasing variations in loads has been a significant challenge in the planning and operation of modern power systems. As effective tools for describing uncertainty issues, scenario analysis methods have been used in the uncertainty evaluation of power systems for years. Substantial work has been conducted in both academia and industry. In this paper, a review of the scenario analysis methods is presented. The progress in scenario generation methods, scenario reduction methods, and scenario quality evaluation indices are surveyed in detail. The new trends of scenario analysis methods are discussed. The present authors consider the scenario analyses of 100% renewable integrated power systems and integrated multiple energy systems as potential research directions.