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Land‐based climate solutions for the United States

机译:美国的陆基气候解决方案

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Abstract Meeting end‐of‐century global warming targets requires aggressive action on multiple fronts. Recent reports note the futility of addressing mitigation goals without fully engaging the agricultural sector, yet no available assessments combine both nature‐based solutions (reforestation, grassland and wetland protection, and agricultural practice change) and cellulosic bioenergy for a single geographic region. Collectively, these solutions might offer a suite of climate, biodiversity, and other benefits greater than either alone. Nature‐based solutions are largely constrained by the duration of carbon accrual in soils and forest biomass; each of these carbon pools will eventually saturate. Bioenergy solutions can last indefinitely but carry significant environmental risk if carelessly deployed. We detail a simplified scenario for the United States that illustrates the benefits of combining approaches. We assign a portion of non‐forested former cropland to bioenergy sufficient to meet projected mid‐century transportation needs, with the remainder assigned to nature‐based solutions such as reforestation. Bottom‐up mitigation potentials for the aggregate contributions of crop, grazing, forest, and bioenergy lands are assessed by including in a Monte Carlo model conservative ranges for cost‐effective local mitigation capacities, together with ranges for (a) areal extents that avoid double counting and include realistic adoption rates and (b) the projected duration of different carbon sinks. The projected duration illustrates the net effect of eventually saturating soil carbon pools in the case of most strategies, and additionally saturating biomass carbon pools in the case of forest management. Results show a conservative end‐of‐century mitigation capacity of 110 (57–178) Gt CO2e for the U.S., ~50 higher than existing estimates that prioritize nature‐based or bioenergy solutions separately. Further research is needed to shrink uncertainties, but there is sufficient confidence in the general magnitude and direction of a combined approach to plan for deployment now.
机译:摘要 实现世纪末全球变暖目标需要在多个方面采取积极行动。最近的报告指出,在不让农业部门充分参与的情况下实现减缓目标是徒劳的,但没有可用的评估将基于自然的解决方案(重新造林、草原和湿地保护以及农业实践改变)和纤维素生物能源结合起来。总的来说,这些解决方案可能会提供一系列气候、生物多样性和其他好处,而不是单独使用。基于自然的解决方案在很大程度上受到土壤和森林生物量中碳累积持续时间的限制;这些碳库中的每一个最终都会饱和。生物能源解决方案可以无限期地持续下去,但如果部署不慎,会带来重大的环境风险。我们详细介绍了美国的一个简化方案,说明了组合方法的好处。我们将一部分未受森林覆盖的前农田分配给足以满足预计的本世纪中叶交通需求的生物能源,其余部分分配给基于自然的解决方案,例如重新造林。通过在蒙特卡洛模型中包括具有成本效益的地方缓解能力的保守范围,以及(a)避免重复计算并包括现实采用率的区域范围和(b)不同碳汇的预计持续时间的范围,来评估作物、牧场、森林和生物能源土地总贡献的自下而上的缓解潜力。预计持续时间说明了在大多数战略中最终使土壤碳库饱和的净效应,以及在森林管理的情况下使生物量碳库进一步饱和的净效应。结果显示,美国保守的世纪末减排能力为110(57-178)Gt CO2e,比现有分别优先考虑基于自然或生物能源的解决方案的估计高出~50%。需要进一步的研究来缩小不确定性,但对现在规划部署的综合方法的总体规模和方向有足够的信心。

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