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Optimal quarantine‐related strategies for COVID‐19 control models

机译:COVID-19 控制模型的最佳检疫相关策略

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摘要

Abstract At the time when this paper was written, quarantine‐related strategies (from full lockdown to some relaxed preventive measures) were the only available measure to control coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) epidemic. However, long‐term quarantine and especially full lockdown is an extremely expensive measure. To explore the possibility of controlling and suppressing the COVID‐19 epidemic at the lowest possible cost, we apply optimal control theory. In this paper, we create two controlled Susceptible‐Exposed‐Infectious‐Removed (SEIR) type models describing the spread of COVID‐19 in a human population. For each model, we solve an optimal control problem and find the optimal quarantine strategy that ensures the minimal level of the infected population at the lowest possible cost. The properties of the corresponding optimal controls are established analytically using the Pontryagin maximum principle. The optimal solutions, obtained numerically, validate our analytical results. Additionally, for both controlled models, we find explicit formulas for the basic reproductive ratios in the presence of a constant control and show that while the epidemic can be eventually stopped under long‐term quarantine measures of maximum strength (full lockdown), the strength of quarantine can be reduced under the optimal quarantine policies. The behavior of the appropriate optimal solutions and their dependence on the basic reproductive ratio, population density, and the duration of quarantine are discussed, and practically relevant conclusions are made.
机译:摘要 在撰写本文时,与检疫相关的策略(从全面封锁到一些放松的预防措施)是控制2019冠状病毒病(COVID-19)流行的唯一可用措施。然而,长期隔离,尤其是全面封锁是一项极其昂贵的措施。为了探索以尽可能低的成本控制和抑制COVID-19疫情的可能性,我们应用了最优控制理论。在本文中,我们创建了两个受控的易感暴露感染性去除 (SEIR) 型模型,描述了 COVID-19 在人群中的传播。对于每个模型,我们都会解决一个最佳控制问题,并找到最佳的隔离策略,以确保以尽可能低的成本将感染人群降至最低水平。使用庞特里亚金最大值原理分析确定相应最优控制的性质。数值得到的最优解验证了我们的分析结果。此外,对于两种对照模型,我们找到了在恒定控制下基本繁殖率的明确公式,并表明虽然在最大强度的长期隔离措施(全面封锁)下最终可以阻止流行病,但在最佳隔离政策下,隔离强度可以降低。讨论了适当的最优解的行为及其对基本繁殖率、种群密度和隔离时间的依赖性,并得出了实际相关的结论。

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