A Statistical Prediction Model for Healthcare and Landslide Sensitivity Evaluation in Coal Mining Subsidence Area

摘要

The purpose of this study is to compare the results of the frequency ratio (FR) model with the weight of evidence (WOE) and the logical regression (LR) methods when applied to the landslide susceptibility evaluation in coal mining subsidence areas. Key geological disaster prevention and control areas are taken as the research areas. Field investigation is carried out according to the recorded landslide disaster points in the past five years, and 86 landslide disaster points are determined from the remote sensing satellite images. Furthermore, 12 factors affecting the occurrence of landslide are selected as landslide sensitivity evaluation factors. Among them, slope degree, curvature, elevation, and slope aspect are derived using the digital elevation model (DEM) through 30 m x 30 m resolution. The DEM datasets are derived from the geospatial data cloud, lithology datasets are derived from the geological lithology maps, and land use type map is derived from the current situation of national land use. The distances between roads and coal mining subsidence areas are calculated according to field investigation and remote sensing image interpretation results. In addition, the evaluation model includes an annual rainfall distribution map. Finally, the accuracy of three models is compared by ROC curve analysis. The elevation results demonstrate that the frequency ratio-logic regression (FR-LR) model takes the maximum accurateness of 0.913, subsequent to the FR model and the frequency ratio-weight of evidence (FR-WOE) model, respectively. Thus, using LR method based on the FR model has guiding significance for predicting the landslide sensitivity in coal mining. This reduces probable risks and disasters that affect human health. Subsequently, this ensures higher safety from the healthcare perspective in the mining fields.