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Sensitivity and uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON benchmark

机译:IFR-1 BISON基准的灵敏度和不确定性

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The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered for adoption by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This paper summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. These sensitivities were then used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100 of the benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because the confidence intervals associated with benchmark predictions were wide. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark and future BISON development.
机译:燃料性能代码BISON正被用于评估一种名为“多功能测试反应堆”的新型快谱测试反应堆的金属燃料,美国能源部正在考虑采用该反应堆。为了量化野牛预测的准确性,橡树岭国家实验室的研究人员一直在开发一系列基于传统金属燃料实验的基准。作为这项工作的一部分,必须确定BISON预测对模型输入变化的敏感性以及与BISON预测相关的不确定性。本文总结了基于IFR-1实验的基准进行综合灵敏度分析(SA)和不确定性量化(UQ)的努力。对于 SA,从基准测试中使用的每个 BISON 模型和物理模块中至少选择一个输入。在一系列BISON模拟中,输入是单独变化的。对基准预测中产生的变异进行归一化以计算灵敏度。然后,这些灵敏度用于为UQ的输入选择提供信息。使用蒙特卡洛UQ方法进行UQ。进行了文献综述以估计所选输入的不确定性分布,并在一系列BISON模拟中从每个分布中随机抽取值。基准预测的变化用于估计不确定性分布和置信区间。结果发现,在置信区间内,近 100% 的基准预测与相应的遗留值相匹配。然而,这至少部分是因为与基准预测相关的置信区间很宽。量化了基准、实验不确定性和BISON模型中假设的不确定性贡献。进行了一些分析,以确定导致不确定性的输入。最后,对未来的基准和未来的BISON发展提出了建议。

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