Moving statistic method (MSM) for quantification of changes in precipitation intensity and dry periods caused by climate change and demonstration on major U.S. cities

摘要

Abstract Climate change is predicted to (1) increase the magnitude of precipitation over time, and (2) lengthen the time between significant precipitation events and to thereby increase both flooding and drought for some zones of the planet. It is important, therefore, to quantify the degree that populated cities are affected by climate change as measured by both these hypotheses. A rating system is proposed here that uses the multicriteria of both the magnitude and variability of total annual precipitation values to give a rating system to do this. The precipitation moving average and standard deviation are used here and are demonstrated on the 46 most populous U.S. cities. Results show that not all cities have experienced climate change effects, and that Houston has been affected the most, but that New York has more people affected by climate change of precipitation due to its larger population.