Evolution of the Correlation Between the Amplitude of the Solar Cycle and the Sunspot Number Since the Previous Declining Phase in Both Hemispheres

摘要

Abstract Analyzing the variation in the correlation between the maximum amplitude [Rmaxdocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{max}}$end{document}] of the solar cycle and the hemispheric sunspot number [RHdocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{H}}$end{document}], since the previous declining phase, is helpful in understanding the temporal evolution of the cycle and the possible different mechanisms at work in the two hemispheres. The correlation coefficient [rdocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$r$end{document}] between Rmaxdocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{max}}$end{document} and the smoothed monthly mean RHdocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{H}}$end{document} as a function of m=−50,−49,…,50documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$m=-,50,-,49,,ldots ,,50$end{document} months from the solar minimum [Rmindocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{min}}$end{document}] is studied, and it is found that rdocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$r$end{document} is maximum about three years before Rmindocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{min}}$end{document} at the declining phase, falls to a minimum value around Rmindocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{min}}$end{document}, and increases with mdocumentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$m$end{document} during the rising phase in both hemispheres. Based on the highest correlations at the declining phase, the maximum amplitudes of Cycle 25 in the northern [NH] and southern hemisphere [SH] are predicted to be Rmax,N(25)=85.6±21.9documentclass[12pt]{minimal} usepackage{amsmath} usepackage{wasysym} usepackage{amsfonts} usepackage{amssymb} usepackage{amsbsy} usepackage{mathrsfs} usepackage{upgreek} setlength{oddsidemargin}{-69pt} begin{document}$R_{mathrm{max,N}}(25)=85.6pm 21.9$end{document} and Rmax,S(25)=74.4±17.9documentclass[12pt]