INVESTIGATION OF SELF-ORGANIZED CRITICALITY IN DAILY NEW CONFIRMED CASES OF COVID-19 IN SOME MAJOR AFFECTED INDIAN STATES

摘要

In the present work an investigation is made to find whether self-organized criticality (soc) is present in daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in some major affected Indian states viz. Maharashtra. Karnataka. Andhra Pradesh. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Delhi and Uttar Pradesh, the seven worst affected states and additionally West Bengal. The data has been analyzed from 21 March, 2020. First for each of these time series corresponding 7-point moving average has been estimated. There is always a scope of some uncertainty arising due to the delay or hurry in reporting daily cases. Moving average can be useful in removing the contortions in the data due to faulty representations up to a certain exteut. Before inspecting the presence of self-organized criticality the existence of fractality, which is a necessary condition for self-organized criticality. in all the time series has been analyzed using Higuchi method. The entire investigation of soc has been performed over the 7-point moving average time series for all the Indian states considered. The present study reveals either absence or a very feeble presence of soc in all such states indicating that the internal dynamics of the spread of infection of COVID-19 is probably not capable of self repair if any intervention is induced in between. So, in other words, it fingers to the possibility that effective public health intervention strategies may bring a huge control over the growth in infection.