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A Multisectoral Dynamic Model for Energy, Economic, and Climate Scenario Analysis

机译:能源、经济和气候情景分析的多部门动态模型

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摘要

The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been widely used in energy, land use, technology, and climate policy studies. Here, we provide details of revisions that form the basis of EPPA7, the current version. Key updates include: 1) using the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-power) database as the core economic data for the world economy; 2) updating regional economic growth projections; 3) separating extant and vintage capital of the previously aggregated fossil generation; 4) using an innovative approach to calculate the costs of backstop (i.e., advanced) power generation options based on engineering data from the Energy Information Administration; 5) identifying base year biofuel output from existing sectors; and 6) re-parameterizing electric vehicles based on recent studies. Our simulations demonstrate that with widespread mitigation policies worldwide, regions relying heavily on fossil fuel imports benefit from lower global fossil fuel prices when their domestic emissions targets are lenient, but the benefits dissipate when deeper emissions cuts are imposed domestically. We also provide an illustration how the model output can be used to calculate the net present values of unrealized fossil fuel production and stranded assets from idling coal power generation under various policy scenarios.
机译:麻省理工学院经济预测和政策分析(EPPA)模型已广泛应用于能源、土地利用、技术和气候政策研究。在这里,我们提供了构成当前版本 EPPA7 基础的修订的详细信息。主要更新包括:1)使用最新的全球贸易分析项目(GTAP-power)数据库作为世界经济的核心经济数据;2)更新区域经济增长预测;3)将先前聚集的化石一代的现存资本和年份资本分开;4)使用创新方法,根据能源信息管理局的工程数据计算后备(即高级)发电方案的成本;5)确定现有部门的基准年生物燃料产量;6)根据最近的研究重新参数化电动汽车。我们的模拟表明,随着全球广泛的减排政策,严重依赖化石燃料进口的地区在国内排放目标宽松时受益于全球化石燃料价格的下降,但当国内实施更深层次的减排时,这些好处就会消失。我们还举例说明了如何在各种政策情景下使用模型输出来计算未实现的化石燃料产量和闲置燃煤发电的搁浅资产的净现值。

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