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Personal Credit Default Prediction Model Based on Convolution Neural Network

机译:基于卷积神经网络的个人信用违约预测模型

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摘要

It has great significance for the healthy development of credit industry to control the credit default risk by using the information technology. For some traditional research about the credit default prediction model, more attention is paid to the model accuracy, while the business characteristics of the credit risk prevention are easy to be ignored. Meanwhile, to reduce the complicity of the model, the data features need be extracted manually, which will decrease the high-dimensional correlation among the analyzing data and then result in the low prediction performance of the model. So, in the paper, the CNN (convolutional neural network) is used to establish a personal credit default prediction model, and both ACC (accuracy) and AUC (the area under the ROC curve) are taken as the performance evaluation index of the model. Experimental results show the model ACC (accuracy) is above 95 and AUC (the area under the ROC curve) is above 99, and the model performance is much better than the classical algorithm including the SVM (support vector machine), Bayes, and RF (random forest).
机译:利用信息技术控制信用违约风险对信用行业的健康发展具有重要意义。对于一些传统的信用违约预测模型研究,人们更关注模型的准确性,而信用风险防范的业务特征容易被忽视。同时,为了降低模型的共谋性,需要手动提取数据特征,这会降低分析数据之间的高维相关性,进而导致模型的预测性能较低。因此,本文采用CNN(卷积神经网络)建立个人信用违约预测模型,并将ACC(准确率)和AUC(ROC曲线下面积)作为模型的性能评价指标。实验结果表明,模型ACC(准确率)在95%以上,AUC(ROC曲线下面积)在99%以上,模型性能远优于支持向量机(SVM)、贝叶斯(Bayes)和RF(随机森林)等经典算法。

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