Modelling and simulating a multi-modal and multi-dimensional technology interaction framework: The case of vehicle powertrain technologies in the US market

摘要

A multi-modal and multi-dimensional technology interaction framework is constructed to systematically and dynamically model and simulate the dimension, extent, and modes of multi-technology interactions. Using the Technological Innovation System (TIS), it is argued that a TIS' internal dynamics couple with the internal dynamics of neighbouring TISs vis-`a-vis what is referred to as 'co-dynamics' which trade a mix of positive and negative externalities in the form of biological relationship modes. Based on the Lotka-Volterra equations, the framework is quantified and simulated via a computerised System Dynamics model, for the case of internal combustion engine, hybrid, and battery electric vehicles over 1985-2050 in the US market. The pure competition view in the strategic management literature is extended by the nuanced multi-modal interactions in ecology such as parasitic, commensal and amensalism modes. Additionally, the single-path view in the path dependency literature is extended by the nuanced multi-dimensional interactions such as knowledge cross-path interaction and market cross-path interaction. Furthermore, the TIS framework is made more outward orientated by proposing the notion of 'co-dynamics' and motors of 'creative destruction' and 'creative accumulation'. It is concluded that innovation policy mixes can possess a triple nature of 'creation', 'destruction' and 'accumulation' for interacting TISs through positive and negative internalities and externalities.