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Assembly-based flood repair cost and time models for industrial buildings in Turkey

机译:土耳其工业建筑的基于装配的洪水修复成本和时间模型

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? 2023Flooding is one of the most frequent hazard events significantly affecting the industry in Turkey, leading to severe economic losses and business disruptions. To predict the direct flood losses and business downtimes on the industry, this study proposes probabilistic cost and time models of repairing direct physical flood damage to industrial buildings in Turkey. Using field notes and literature reviews, a typical industrial building was first disassembled into a list of building components vulnerable to flooding. With a focus on fa?ade and interior building components, the flood damage potential of each component was assessed at different flood depths and velocities. Damage state relationships were established for the building components to connect their damage levels under flood actions to their individual repair work. Using the assembly-based approach, costs and times of repairing each flood-damaged component and their associated variabilities were assembled in a probabilistic approach to develop total flood repair cost and time models. The results show that typical repair costs and times for facilities subjected to significant flood depths and velocities might reach substantial levels, up to 28 of building replacement costs and 165 working days on average. The proposed models systematically incorporate existing important uncertainties, therefore, provide reliable estimates.
机译:?2023年洪水是土耳其最频繁的灾害事件之一,对该行业产生重大影响,导致严重的经济损失和业务中断。为了预测该行业的直接洪水损失和业务停工时间,本研究提出了修复土耳其工业建筑直接物理洪水损坏的概率成本和时间模型。通过实地笔记和文献综述,首先将一栋典型的工业建筑拆解成易受洪水影响的建筑构件清单。以立面和内部建筑构件为重点,评估了每个构件在不同洪水深度和速度下的潜在洪水破坏。为建筑构件建立了损坏状态关系,以将其在洪水作用下的损坏程度与其各自的修复工作联系起来。使用基于装配的方法,以概率方法组装修复每个受洪水损坏的组件的成本和时间及其相关的可变性,以开发总洪水修复成本和时间模型。结果显示,遭受严重洪水深度和水流的设施的典型维修成本和时间可能达到相当高的水平,高达建筑物更换成本的 28%,平均需要 165 个工作日。因此,所提出的模型系统地纳入了现有的重要不确定性,从而提供了可靠的估计。

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