Prediction Scores for Any-Stage and Stage-3 Acute Kidney Injury After Adult Cardiac Surgery in a Chinese Population

摘要

Objectives: This study was performed to internally derive and then validate risk score systems using preoperative and intraoperative variables to predict the occurrence of any-stage (stage 1, 2, 3) and stage-3 acute kidney injury (AKI) within seven days of cardiac surgery. Design: Single-center, retrospective, observational study. Setting: Single, large, tertiary care center. Participants: Adult patients undergoing open cardiac surgery between January 1, 2012, and January 1, 2019. Measurements and Main Results: The clinical data were divided into the following two groups: a derivation cohort (n = 43,799) and a validation cohort (n = 14,600). AKI was defined using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the prediction models. The overall prevalence of any-stage AKI and stage-3 AKI after cardiac surgery were 34.3% and 1.7%, respectively. The discriminatory ability of the any-stage AKI prediction model measured with the area under the curve (AUC) was acceptable (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.69), and the calibration measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was good (p = 0.95). The AUC for the stage-3 AKI prediction model was 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.83-0.85), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test also indicated a good calibration (p = 0.73). Conclusions: This research study, which used preoperative and intraoperative variables, derived and internally validated two predictive scoring systems for any-stage AKI and stage-3 AKI as defined by modified Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria using a very large cohort of Chinese cardiac surgical patients. (C) 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.