Financial Imbalance Risk and Its Control Strategy of China's Pension Insurance Contribution Rate Reduction

摘要

Within the context of China's Urban Employees' Basic Pension Insurance (UEBPI), this paper constructs an actuarial model to analyze the financial imbalance risk of contribution rate reduction and to investigate the possibility of further reducing the contribution rate. It is found that the UEBPI fund would show financial imbalance risk in 2024 if the contribution rate is 16%, and no control strategy is introduced. In the case of single strategy (the collection system reform, delay of retirement age, or the introduction of external finance), the financial sustainability of the UEBPI fund could be improved to some extent, whereas the financial imbalance risk remains huge. In the case of a package of control strategies being implemented, the UEBPI fund could be able to continue its operation until 2060, and the contribution rate can be further reduced by 0-4 percentage. Therefore, the implementation of a package of control strategies presents a prerequisite for controlling the financial imbalance risk and further reducing the contribution rate.