A phrase used by various politicians during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was that society and the economy would build back better. As always with phrases trotted out by politicians the reality is much more complicated and any attempts to build back better are uneven, offering positives for some but also little assistance to many others. This comparison can also be applied to the recovery in the OSV industry. By all indicators there is certainly a recovery in process, with improving term demand numbers, climbing utilisation, and improving day rates, but it is not lifting all sectors and regions. The latest edition of Global Supply Vessel Forecast (GSVF) was published this month and outlined the variations in recovery that can be seen in different regions and across vessel classes. Throughout 2021 and into the first quarter of 2022 the general trend has been one of early gains followed by a softening market. The best term figures in the last 15 months are generally seen in the second or third quarters of 2021 and often followed by either a softer market or a stall into the first quarter of 2022. This stall is shaping up just to be a pause, rather than a reversal of fortunes, with market sentiment remaining positive and expectations that the remainder of this year will provide improving demand figures. These improved market conditions are expected to continue into 2023 before elements of uncertainty start to hold back the demand drivers, and subsequently flatten the term activity expectations.
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