Can model-based data products replace gauge data as input to the hydrological model?

摘要

Hydrological models require accurate and representative meteorological inputs for better prediction of discharge and hence,the efficient management of water resources. Numerical weather prediction model-based reanalysis data products on the catchment scale are becoming available,and they could be an alternative input data for hydrological models. This study focuses on the applicability of a set of model-based data as input to hydrological models used in inflow predictions for operational hydropower production planning of three hydropower systems in middle Norway. First,the study compared the data products with gauge measurements. Then,Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) models of the three catchments were calibrated with three different meteorological datasets (model-based,gauge and observational gridded) separately using a Monte Carlo approach. It was found that the correlation between the model-based and gauged precipitation was highly variable among stations,and daily values showed a better correlation than hourly. The performance of model-based input data with daily timestep was nearly as good as the gauge or gridded data for the model calibration. Further,the annual simulated flow volume using the model-based data was satisfactory as similar to the gauge or gridded input data,which indicate that model-based data can be a potential data source for long-term operational hydropower production planning.