Variability in meteorological droughts as pivotal mechanism for rice production over the middle gangetic plains

摘要

The meteorological drought dynamics and its impacts on rice productivity has been evaluated for the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) season using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) over the middle Gangetic plains (MGP) of Bihar. The meteorological drought over the ISMR period was found to be a recurring phenomenon coinciding with the rice growing season over Bihar. The rice crop has an intensive water requirement; therefore, it is significantly impacted by the meteorological droughts. In the present study, spatiotemporal characteristics viz. intensity, frequency, and probability of meteorological drought has been assessed along with an investigation for significant trends and detection of regime shift points to identify the impact of drought on rice production. For the purpose, SPI-4 derived from high resolution gridded daily rainfall data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees) from India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been considered to analyse the meteorological drought episodes over agro-climatic zones of Bihar from 1961 to 2019. The regime shifts were determined using the Rodionov test for the drought dynamics and production of rice in Bihar. A moderate to severe drought-prone zone was found over the zone BRZ3B; while zone BRZ2 and BRZ3A showed comparatively a greater number of mild drought events persisting with more than 70% probability of occurrence. An inkling of increasing dependency on groundwater is found, which is in turn governing the rice production regime. The present study shows there is a substantial need for climate resilience and food security policies incorporating the subtle linkage between SPI variability and crop production, especially over rice producing regions of the globe.