A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates

摘要

Due to accelerating climate variability and intensified anthropogenic activities, the hypothesis of stationarity of data series is no longer applicable, questioning the reliability of the traditional drought index. Thus, it is critical to develop a non-stationary hydrological drought index that takes into account the joint impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes in a drought assessment framework. In this study, using the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS), a new Non-stationary Standardized Runoff Index (NSRI) was developed combining climate indices (CI) and modified reservoir index (MRI) as explanatory variables. This novel index was applied to the hydrological drought assessment of the Hanjiang River basin (HRB) in China, and its reliability was assessed by comparing with the traditional Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). Results indicated that the optimal non-stationary model with CI and MRI as covariates performed better than did other models. Furthermore, NSRI was more robust in identifying extreme drought events and was more effective in the study region than the conventional SRI. In addition, based on the method of Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST), it was found that there were two change points in 1981 and 2003 for the NSRI series at four hydrological stations in the HRB, which indicated that hydrological drought in the basin had a prominent non-stationary behavior. Our findings may provide significant information for regional drought assessment and water resources management from a changing environment perspective.