Impacted by the economic headwinds(e.g. inflation, escalating interest rates,slow Chinese growth) that we profiled inour report six months ago, seabornetrade fell 0.5% in 2022 to 11.9bt. Whilesome of the negative data points hadbegun to moderate in early 2023 (e.g.we estimate global trade returned to 1%y-o-y growth in Q1) the world economyretains vulnerabilities (e.g. recent concerningbanking sector problems). Forthe moment we are projecting trade willreach 12.1bt in 2023 and 12.5bt in 2024.The divergence between energyrelatedtrade (2022: +4%, 2023: +3%)and non-energy trade (2022: -3%, 2023:+1%) continues, although there is nowmore optimism around increasing Chineseeconomy activity, traditionally agood signal for dry bulk. The redistributionof oil flows in response to theUkraine conflict has introduced a fundamentaldistance “kicker” for shippingdemand: this year we project crudetanker demand to grow by 3% by volumeand 7% by tonne miles (oil productsa more dramatic 4% vs 11%). Portcongestion is back at pre-Covid levels.
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