The trilateral ceasefire agreement signed on 9 November 2020 between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia created a serious shift in the balance of powers in the South Caucasus. Consequently, Russia's influence on developments in this region has been brought into question by the close alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan. For its part, Armenia has tried to recover following its devastating defeat on the battlefield. To the north, Georgia's priorities continue to be framed by internal developments. And looking south, Iran has been cautiously advocating forthe "3+3" formula of regional cooperation. Furthermore, the magnitude of the Russian-Ukrainian war has contributed to further geostrategic changes and has increased the challenges throughout the South Caucasus. This article analyses several key aspects of the new geo-strategic environment in this region By signing the 'Contract of the Century' in 1994, Azerbaijan revealed its two major strategic goals: ⅰ) the restoration of its territorial integrity through the return, under its full control, of all territories lost after the first Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) war (1991-1994); and ⅱ) Baku's gradual transformation into a provider of crude oil and natural gas to the world energy market. The first goal was achieved in the course of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. The second has, to some degree, been realised against the background of EU and US sanctions imposed on Russia after its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. These sanctions have been further expanded after the latter's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Four intertwined developments shed light on the politicisation and weaponisation of the energy issue by Russia, the EU, and Azerbaijan.
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