Quantitative assessment of ship collision risk influencing factors from worldwide accident and fleet data

摘要

? 2023The paper assesses the contribution of specific Risk Influencing Factors towards the occurrence of ship collision accidents. The approach adopted is inspired by the Cox proportional hazard regression model and combines a Bayesian rule and the least-squares method to assess the influence of risk factors on the collision probability based on historical data of collision accidents worldwide and information of the world's merchant fleet. For the quantitative assessment, a global sample involving 936 collision events from the Global Integrated Shipping Information System database of the International Maritime Organization for the period 2005–2017 is used. Additionally, world fleet statistics are analysed and compared to collision accidents statistics. Based on these data sets, six Risk Influencing Factors are assessed with a direct impact on the collision probability, namely Ship length, Ship type, age of the ship, Classification Society, flag and geographical area. The results show that the Risk Influencing Factors having the greater impact on ship collisions are the ship type and the geographical area.