The present study was conducted to identify the climate resilience of two widely used varieties of cassava in one of the major cassava growing areas in Kerala, India. The future projections for 2030, 2050, and 2070 were derived using the Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) with integrated global climate models (GCMs). The projections for the representative concentration pathway-4.5 (RCP-4.5) were tested in the crop model, World Food Studies (WOFOST) to assess the resilience of cassava varieties. The future projections in the study region indicated an increase of up to 2.1 and 2.3 degrees C for maximum and minimum temperatures respectively, followed by solar dimming. The crop yield predictions based on the outputs from the GCMs indicated that the yield of the long duration cassava var. H-226 increased during 2030 from 8.6 to 12 and that of short duration var. Sree Vijaya increased from 3.6 to 5.5. With the 2050 scenario, the yield increased from 3.3 to 6.7 for var. H-226 and -4.3 to 1.9 for var. Sree Vijaya, respectively. Whereas, during 2070 was a decrease in the yield for vars H-226 and Sree Vijaya ranging from -9 to 3.8 and -10 to -5.2 respectively. The results indicated that var. H-226 is more resilient to the changing climate than var. Sree Vijaya. As an outcome of this study, the var. H-226 can be considered as climate-resilient, and this information can assist the decision makers in selecting an appropriate crop variety to ensure food security.
展开▼
