Selecting the Best Approach to Modeling the Performance of Water Supply System Using the Combination of Rough Set Theory with Multi-Criteria Decision Making

摘要

Abstract The purpose of this study is to select the best modeling approach (simulation or optimization) for operation the water supply system using multi-criteria decision-making method. For this purpose, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Earth System Models (GFDL-ESM2M) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-ESM (MIROC-ESM) models were selected to predict the changing trend of the climatic variables of rainfall and temperature, respectively. Then Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and a decision support system tool named Cropwat were used to simulate water resources and consumption; and to model the behavior of the water supply system, the MODified SYMyld (MODSIM) (as simulator) and the modeling language and optimizer LINGO 18 (as optimizer) were used in the future time period (2026–2039) and the results were compared with the baseline period (1987–2000) for the Idoghmush reservoir (Iran). The results of MODSIM simulation model show that the indexes of reliability, vulnerability, reseiliency and flexibility in the future time period under the RCP2.6 emission scenario compared to the baseline time period decreased by 9, decreased by 22, increased by 4, and decreased by 2, respectively. The results of the LINGO 18 optimization model show that the reliability, vulnerability, resiliency and flexibility indexes in the future time period under the RCP2.6 emission scenario compared to the baseline time period decreased by 13, decreased by 17, increased by 14 and increased by 3, respectively. Due to the different results obtained from optimization and simulation approaches for the study area, the Multi-Attributive Ideal-Real Comparative Analysis (MAIRCA) multi-criteria decision-making method was used to select a more appropriate approach. The results show that for water resources management planning, the simulation approach is given priority over the optimization approach due to its characteristics.