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Measuring the spatial connectivity of extreme rainfall

机译:测量极端降雨的空间连通性

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The frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been noted to be changing in both time and space as a result of rising global temperatures. In this regard, the analysis of joint occurrences of extreme climate events has gained considerable importance for planning and emergency management as such events often result in system failures that extend beyond a single location in the region impacted. By their very definition, extremes cannot be sampled frequently, necessitating approaches that are robust and efficient and can take advantage of the Big Data movement we are now a part of. This study introduces a new concept for characterizing such dependence, termed relative connectivity, formulated using the theory of empirical copulas which represent a non-parametric method to describe the joint dependence of random variables. The spatial relative connectivity of extreme rainfall events across 2,708 rainfall stations in Australia is ascertained and conclusions drawn. The extreme rainfall events in Western Australia, southeast South Australia, and southwest Victoria exhibit higher relative connectivity than other regions, suggesting a stronger spatial dependence and higher possibility of concurrence when compared to other regions. The overall variation of relative connectivity is also examined under different low-frequency climatic anomalies (i.e. El Nino and La Nina events) and temperature states. We observe that spatial dependence across raingauges increases under both El Nino and La Nina periods, while it weakens at warmer temperatures, with localized lower relative connectivity at target raingauges.
机译:由于全球气温上升,极端天气事件的频率和严重程度在时间和空间上都在发生变化。在这方面,对极端气候事件的联合事件的分析对于规划和应急管理具有相当重要的意义,因为此类事件通常会导致系统故障,其范围超出了受影响区域的单个地点。根据其定义,极端情况不能经常采样,因此需要强大而有效的方法,并可以利用我们现在参与的大数据运动。本研究引入了一种表征这种依赖性的新概念,称为相对连通性,该概念使用经验 copulas 理论来表述,该理论代表了一种非参数方法来描述随机变量的联合依赖性。确定了澳大利亚2,708个降雨站极端降雨事件的空间相对连通性,并得出结论。西澳大利亚州、南澳大利亚州东南部和维多利亚州西南部的极端降雨事件表现出比其他地区更高的相对连通性,表明与其他地区相比,具有更强的空间依赖性和更高的同时发生的可能性。此外,还研究了不同低频气候异常(即厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件)和温度状态下相对连通性的总体变化。我们观察到,在厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜时期,雨量计之间的空间依赖性增加,而在温度升高时,雨量计之间的空间依赖性减弱,目标雨量计的局部相对连通性较低。

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