Study on Sustainable Development of the Transnational Power Grid Interconnection Projects under Diversified Risks Based on Variable Weight Theory and Bayesian Network

摘要

Transnational power grid interconnection is an important measure to promote the construction of energy Internet. It can meet the global power demand in a clean and green way, promote the UN's concept of "sustainable energy," and tackle climate changes. But, transnational power grid projects face many complex and variable risks due to their complex background and lacking experience. According to the characteristics of transnational power grid interconnection projects, a risk assessment index system including 10 indexes such as national relation, public participation, and available transmission capacity is constructed. Then, in order to overcome the shortcomings of traditional risk assessment methods, this paper proposes a risk assessment method combined with risk theory and probabilistic model, which can not only consider the uncertainties but also integrate the probability of accidents with consequences. Therefore, it can effectively assess the transnational power grid interconnection projects under diversified risks. In addition, in order to further magnify the impact of higher risks on such projects, a method combining traditional weighting method with the variable weight theory is proposed. The study in this paper provides certain guidance and decision-making support for different participants such as the government power sector, construction enterprises, and investment enterprises when they launch on sustainable development of the transnational project business, which have obvious practical significance.