Research and Application of Critical Failure Paths Identification Method for Dam Risk Analysis

摘要

Dam is an important part of the national infrastructure, and its safety has been widely concerned. Risk identification of dams plays a significant role in risk assessment and control. Finding out some critical failure paths through adopting timely measures can help reduce the risk occurrence probability effectively. This paper develops an identification method based on the credibility and the interval analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) methods, namely, consistency and difference-based interval analytic hierarchy process (CDB-IAHP) method, to identify the critical failure paths of dams exactly considering the dynamic cognition degree of decision-makers. Based on the fault tree analysis (FTA) method, the framework and analysis for critical failure paths identification of a gravity dam and an Earth-rockfill dam are conducted and made. The results show that the critical failure paths obtained by the proposed method are in line with the statistical data, and the importance of disaster causing factors has some difference with the traditional method. Additionally, some engineering and nonengineering measures are suggested to reduce the impact of potential failure paths. The applications demonstrate that the proposed method shows good applicability for risk analysis and critical failure path mining of dams.