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Modeling Urban Exodus Dynamics Considering Settlers Adaptation Time and Local Authority Support

机译:考虑定居者适应时间和地方当局支持的城市外流动态建模

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摘要

While there has been much work analyzing the effects of urban exodus on rural areas' development, particularly in improving these localities' access to better services and decent quality of life, models to date lacked important features such as adaptation time effect on ongoing agricultural projects of new settlers reflecting real difficulties related to individuals abilities. In this article, we show that newcomers individual abilities, educational backgrounds, motivation, and so forth are crucial to promote the development of rural areas and facilitate the relocation or return of a certain group of people in their region of interest. Using a systemic approach, we present a model of urban exodus based on constant delay differential equations considering the local authority and population support and the time needed before the successful settlement of newcomers in the region. Furthermore, we estimate that adaptation time was responsible both for successful settlement increase and failure decrease. To reflect this, we incorporate delay terms in both the successful settlement and failure differential equations. We performed a qualitative analysis of the proposed system and show in numerical simulation that newcomers should be selected in function of their skills and experiences to accelerate their successful settlement, achieve overall socioeconomic development and improve the quality of life and well-being of the inhabitants.
机译:虽然已经开展了大量工作来分析城市人口外流对农村地区发展的影响,特别是在改善这些地方获得更好服务和体面生活质量方面的影响,但迄今为止的模型缺乏重要特征,例如适应时间对新定居者正在进行的农业项目的影响,反映了与个人能力有关的实际困难。本文指出,新移民的个人能力、教育背景、积极性等对于促进农村地区发展、促进某一群体在所关注地区的迁移或回归至关重要。使用系统的方法,我们提出了一个基于恒定延迟微分方程的城市外流模型,该模型考虑了地方当局和人口支持以及该地区新移民成功定居所需的时间。此外,我们估计适应时间是成功沉降增加和失败减少的原因。为了反映这一点,我们在成功结算和失效微分方程中都加入了延迟项。我们对所提出的系统进行了定性分析,并在数值模拟中表明,应根据新移民的技能和经验来选择新移民,以加速他们的成功定居,实现社会经济的整体发展,并改善居民的生活质量和福祉。

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