Despite some mixed crop news, wheat has been the weakest link in the global grain and feed complex in the final quarter of 2022. A renewed price descent in the past month largely reflected Russia signing up to the UN-sponsored deal to let Ukraine’s blocked grain exports out by traditional ocean routes. That the deal actually went ahead - and grain again flowed in decent quantities from the world’s frequent fifth or sixth largest exporter - appeared to surpris, more than a few onlookers, given the unpredictable way hostilities progressed since the spring and Russia’s perceived interest in keeping the Ukrainian competition down (probably one explanation for Russian delays to inspections of Ukrainian vessels agreed under the deal).Despite that, on current pointers, Ukraine is now expected to complete exports of around 11 million tonnes of wheat and 15.5 million tonnes of corn. That’s still well down on the last season’s 18.84 million and 27 million tonnes respectively, but a lotbetter than many hoped a few months ago. If these forecasts are correct, it still means Ukraine will end the 2022/2023 season with much larger than usual stocks, especially of com, which will help supplement its expected smaller 2023 production (which could be down 40 percent according to some observers).
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