Predicting the 2015‒2020 Eruptions of Bezymiannyi Volcano, Kamchatka: The Results of a Procedure Based on the SESL'09, Verification of the Parameters

摘要

Abstract In recent decades Bezymianny Volcano, Kamchatka, one of the most threatening volcanic objects of Russia, has produced an average of 1–2 short-lived, but strong, explosive–effusive eruptions per year. The most reliable source of data for identifying a precursory situation before such an eruption seems to be seismicity, with continuous data being supplied by the Kamchatka seismicity monitoring system. The formalized method developed by the present author for predicting Bezymianny eruptions based on a statistical estimation of seismicity level (SESL’09) has performed satisfactorily in real time as well, with the precursory processes before all the eight eruptions of Bezymianny in 2015–2020 being detected. Revision of all characteristics the method involves (efficiency, reliability, and validity) showed that they remained stable when new data were added. The prediction method was supplemented with a new parameter, lead time, which provides a formal procedure to estimate the expectation time for a prediction to come true.